Dr. Ashkan Mombeini, an international affairs analyst, writes exclusively for IRAF: Regional countries have increasingly concluded that the security challenges of the region cannot be managed without the presence and role of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is why Tehran has witnessed a growing number of political and security consultations and visits.
The visit of Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir, Chief of Army Staff, to Tehran should not be viewed solely through the lens of bilateral relations between Iran and Pakistan. In my view, the visit carries important regional and strategic implications, particularly as Pakistan seeks to play a facilitating and mediating role in easing tensions between Iran and the United States and reopening a path to diplomacy.
One of the most important aspects of the visit is Islamabad’s effort to create the conditions for a return to understanding and the reactivation of diplomatic channels. In recent months, Pakistan has shown its willingness to use its relations with both Tehran and Washington to help reduce tensions. Munir’s visit to Tehran should be viewed within this framework. Such efforts could create an opening for dialogue and de-escalation, but their success will ultimately depend on Washington’s conduct and its willingness to honor its commitments.
At the same time, there is a crucial reality: given its past experience, the Islamic Republic of Iran has lost trust in the United States. Therefore, if Washington genuinely seeks to return to diplomacy, it cannot simply send messages through intermediaries and expect Tehran to accept the conditions of the past. The United States must first honor its commitments and demonstrate that diplomacy is not merely a tactical tool for buying time.
From my perspective, the more significant aspect of this visit is the message it sends about a shift in the center of gravity of security dynamics in West Asia. Regional countries have increasingly concluded that regional security issues cannot be managed without Iran’s presence and role. As a result, political and security consultations and visits to Tehran are increasing. This trend indicates that decision-making over many regional dynamics is shifting from outside the region to within it, with Tehran emerging as a central player.
This development should be viewed as part of the emergence of a new security order in West Asia—one in which regional powers have a greater role in determining the region’s future and dependence on extra-regional powers is reduced. Given its geopolitical position, defense capabilities, political capacity and role in regional security, the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the main pillars of this emerging order.
One of the most important components of this new order is the Strait of Hormuz. The security of the Strait cannot be defined outside the region’s geopolitical realities or without taking into account Iran’s role and sovereignty. Iran does not accept that extra-regional powers should determine the security arrangements governing this vital regional waterway. Therefore, any new security arrangements in the region must recognize Iran’s role and position in the Strait of Hormuz.
For this reason, if the United States seeks to reduce tensions and return to diplomacy, the circumstances are different this time. It is not Iran that must adjust itself to Washington’s demands; rather, the United States must acknowledge the new realities of the region and Iran’s circumstances. Washington must change its policy of pressure, threats and coercion, honor its commitments and recognize that continued maximum pressure cannot force Iran to retreat.
Iran’s distrust of the United States is, of course, a serious reality, and it cannot be expected to disappear after a few diplomatic messages. Trust can only be rebuilt when the United States demonstrates in practice that it is committed to its obligations. If Washington wants an understanding, it must first show that it respects agreements and commitments rather than continuing a policy of pressure and threats while simultaneously sending messages about negotiations.
From this perspective, Pakistan’s role is also significant. Islamabad is seeking to keep a channel of communication open between Tehran and Washington, but this channel can only produce results if the United States accepts that regional conditions have changed. Iran is no longer a peripheral actor in the equations of West Asia; it is one of the region’s major and decisive powers, and many regional countries are increasingly compelled to consult with Tehran on security issues.
The visit of Asim Munir to Tehran should therefore be analyzed on three levels: first, Pakistan’s effort to reduce tensions and reopen the path to diplomacy; second, its attempt to create the conditions for a return to understanding and the implementation of commitments; and third, as a sign of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s growing role in the emerging security order of West Asia.
