Dr. Akram Arifi, professor of political science in Afghanistan, in an interview with Iraf regarding Kabul–Islamabad relations, identified a significant root of recent tensions between the two countries as the increasing activity of armed opponents inside Pakistan and said that Pakistan’s intelligence agency (ISI) in the past two years has tried to bring together Afghanistan’s political opponents and dissatisfied individuals in meetings in Pakistan, Turkey, and some European countries. According to him, Islamabad has always tried to use political, security, and religious tools to maintain its influence in Afghanistan.
Direct link of tensions with Pakistan’s internal situation
Dr. Arifi emphasized in this interview that security developments inside Pakistan directly affect the country’s relations with Afghanistan, and whenever the activity of opposition and armed groups in Pakistan increases, the level of tension between Kabul and Islamabad also rises.
He said: “The tensions that arise are dependent on the activities of opponents inside Pakistan.” According to him, the increase in operations and attacks inside Pakistan usually causes the political and security atmosphere between the two countries to become more tense, and Pakistani officials adopt harsher reactions toward Afghanistan.
Arifi explained that during periods when Pakistan’s internal situation becomes more critical, Islamabad tries to link part of its security problems to developments in Afghanistan. He added that this issue has been repeated many times in recent years and has become a constant pattern in the relations between the two countries.
This professor of political science in Afghanistan also said: “With each phase that these activities inside Pakistan intensify, the same level of tensions between the two countries also increases.” According to him, conversely, whenever the level of operations and insecurities in Pakistan decreases, the relations between the two countries also enter a somewhat softer and calmer space.
The role of ISI in gathering Afghanistan’s political opponents
Arifi, in another part of his statements, referred to the role of Pakistan’s intelligence agency, ISI, in Afghanistan’s political developments and said that Islamabad over the past approximately two years has tried to gather Afghanistan’s political opponents and dissatisfied individuals.
He said that these actions were not limited to Pakistan alone and that meetings and consultations were also held in Turkey and some European countries. According to him, the goal of these meetings was to create coordination among Afghanistan’s political opponents and to form a current aligned with Pakistan against the Taliban government.
Arifi stated: “Pakistan is trying to gather Afghanistan’s dissatisfied and opposition groups and use them as a pro-Pakistan aligned group.” He added that these efforts are part of Pakistan’s traditional policy toward Afghanistan; a policy aimed at maintaining influence in Afghanistan’s political structure.
According to him, Pakistan has always tried to play a role in Afghanistan’s internal equations and not allow a government to form in Kabul that is considered a security or political threat from Islamabad’s perspective.
He also pointed out that ISI over past decades has been influential in many developments in Afghanistan and now also seeks to maintain its influence using various tools.
Pakistan’s tools of influence in Afghanistan
This university professor further spoke about the tools Pakistan has used to influence developments in Afghanistan. He said one of the most important of these tools has been extremist groups.
Arifi stated: “The first tool they mainly worked on was forming radical Islamic groups.” According to him, these groups have been used at various times for political and security pressure.
He added that Pakistan, in addition, has benefited from the influence of some Arab countries and regional and trans-regional powers. He explained that Islamabad has tried to use its relationships with some countries to strengthen its position and influence in Afghanistan.
Arifi also said that another important tool for Pakistan has been using the influence of political figures and influential individuals inside Afghanistan. According to him, Islamabad in different years has tried to have close connections with some personalities and political currents in Afghanistan to influence internal processes in the country.
He emphasized that some of these tools are still active, and Pakistan still uses them to advance its political and security objectives.
Afghanistan’s jihad: from a national movement to foreign influence
Dr. Arifi, continuing his statements, referred to Afghanistan’s jihad era and said that at the beginning, Afghanistan’s jihad was a national and popular movement based on the people’s beliefs and convictions. In its early stages, this movement was mostly internal in nature, and foreign countries did not yet play a broad role in it.
However, according to him, in later stages, various countries tried to use Afghanistan’s conditions and the jihad movement to secure their own interests and objectives. He added that gradually foreign influence in Afghanistan increased, and Pakistan also gained a deeper presence in the country’s developments.
This professor of political science emphasized that a distinction must be made between the initial phase of Afghanistan’s jihad and subsequent periods because, later, regional and international rivalries overshadowed Afghanistan’s developments.
He added: “The further the process of developments continued, the deeper Pakistan’s influence became.” According to him, part of Afghanistan’s current complex situation is the result of these foreign interventions and rivalries over past decades.
Regional countries’ view on Afghanistan’s stability
This Afghan expert, in the final part of his interview with Iraf, referred to the perspective of regional countries regarding Afghanistan and said that countries like Iran, China, and Central Asian states are above all seeking stability in Afghanistan.
He explained that these countries consider instability in Afghanistan a threat to regional security and economic cooperation and therefore support any process that leads to stability.
According to him, the development of economic projects, trade cooperation, and regional transit schemes is not possible without stability in Afghanistan, and continued insecurity can negatively affect the entire region.
He noted that accusing opposition political currents of having links with foreign countries is common in the region, and many political actors in crisis situations make such accusations against each other.
It is worth mentioning that Afghanistan–Pakistan relations over past decades have always been accompanied by distrust, security tensions, and political rivalries. Afghan officials at different periods have accused Pakistan, especially its intelligence agency ISI, of interfering in Afghanistan’s internal affairs and supporting certain groups; allegations Islamabad has always denied. Conversely, Pakistan has repeatedly accused Afghanistan of harboring anti-Pakistan armed opponents. These tensions in recent years, coinciding with increased attacks and insecurity inside Pakistan, have intensified once again.
