According to Iraf, the senior analyst, in a note published by the “Iqbal Think Tank,” believes the region is experiencing an earthquake in power equations. According to news sources, Zahid Hussain, in his analysis today (Wednesday, May 13), states that Donald Trump, by adopting contradictory positions, has kept the international environment in a state of suspension and limbo. While claiming that the United States has achieved its war objectives, by rejecting Iran’s peace proposal he has effectively placed the ceasefire in a state of “complete coma.” Zahid Hussain reveals that this obstruction occurred immediately after a phone call between Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump, during which Tel Aviv, by repeating claims regarding “nuclear threats,” pursued maximum pressure for America’s return to the phase of military operations.
Riyadh’s Strategic Shift and the Collapse of Arab Consensus
One of the most important layers of Zahid Hussain’s analysis is the meaningful shift in Saudi Arabia’s position. Riyadh, which in past decades consistently encouraged hardline confrontation with Tehran, has now, after understanding new battlefield realities, refused to participate in the “Freedom Project” (the U.S. naval operation) and has not granted permission for the use of its airspace and bases for strikes against Iran. Mohammed bin Salman, in a clear shift, now supports Islamabad’s mediation initiative instead of confrontation. This behavioral change has created a fracture within the Gulf bloc; while Riyadh, Muscat, and Doha have chosen the path of diplomacy, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, out of fear of missile strikes on vital infrastructure — especially Dubai — have increasingly taken refuge under the defensive umbrella of Washington and Tel Aviv.
Oil and Politics; The UAE’s Exit from OPEC as a Symbol of Rupture
Zahid Hussain considers the UAE’s sudden decision to leave OPEC amid military tensions to be a clear sign of the collapse of the traditional alliance among Arab countries in managing the energy market. This move, carried out amid the fog of war, reflects the end of an era in which Persian Gulf countries jointly monitored oil flows. This economic rupture has created space for Israel to accelerate projects related to the annexation of the West Bank and the consolidation of military presence in Gaza and Lebanon under the cover of global focus on tensions with Iran.
The Outlook for Deterrence and the Peace Deadlock
From the perspective of this senior Pakistani analyst, the current war, contrary to White House claims, has not contributed to stability but has merely given Tel Aviv greater freedom to alter the geography of Palestine and Lebanon. Battlefield realities show that Iran’s missile and drone deterrence has changed the cost-benefit calculations for conservative regional states. The current deadlock in negotiations and Washington’s insistence on excessive demands under pressure from the Zionist lobby indicate that peace will not be attainable, and the region must prepare itself for a prolonged era of “controlled tensions” and the redefinition of alliances based on indigenous interests — a path in which cooperation between Iran and Pakistan could serve as a balancing force against extra-regional interventions.
