Tehran- IRAF- Sam Kiley, senior editor of The Independent, analyzed Trump’s recent moves in foreign policy, stating that his actions in Ukraine are chaotic but effective in a dangerous way. This may create a temporary pause in Russia’s attacks as winter approaches and electricity is rationed.
However, the main risk is the price Trump expects to receive from Putin in exchange for this temporary “ceasefire”: Ukraine’s surrender without conflict and the handover of key defensive lines and strategic cities to Kremlin’s demands.
Kiley believes that Trump has taken the wrong side in Ukraine. He also warned that the US president may start a war against Iran that he cannot control.
The article states that American negotiators have tried to convince Zelensky to agree to hand over the Donetsk region and large parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Washington has cut off military aid to Ukraine and only provides limited information to Ukrainian forces.
This has made Ukraine’s energy infrastructure highly vulnerable to Russian attacks.
Ukraine: A More Logical Option for Intervention
The Independent wrote that if Trump is looking for a “humanitarian necessity” to use American military power, this necessity exists in Ukraine, not Iran. By restoring military aid (especially air defense and long-range missiles), Ukraine can push back Russia and defend itself.
Over 10 million Ukrainians have been displaced, and nearly 6 million are refugees in Europe. Trump prefers Europe to take responsibility for its own security and for America to spend less.
However, the Finnish president recently emphasized in Davos that the narrative that “Ukraine is losing” is a Russian narrative, and intelligence data contradicts it.
Attacking Iran; A Lose-Lose Situation
Sam Kiley writes that Donald Trump likes to support winners. It is Europe’s duty to prove to him that supporting Ukraine is a win-win game for America.
However, one principle remains constant: attacking Iran will have no winner and will only result in a loss for all parties.
Instead, Trump is sending what he calls an “immense fleet” to Iran, led by the aircraft carrier “Abraham Lincoln,” which is seen as a threat to Iran. This show of power is meant to pressure Tehran to stop its nuclear and missile programs and reduce its support for regional groups.
Trump has dropped his past claims about intervening to support protesters in Iran, while previously encouraging people to protest and promising “help.”
Hidden US Goals: Access to Oil Companies and Israeli Regime Satisfaction
The main attraction of this action for Trump is likely the hope of allowing American oil companies to enter Iran after a hypothetical collapse and exploit its energy reserves, similar to his plan for Venezuela.
Additionally, he deeply believes that this will favor the Israeli regime, which fears the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The analysis emphasizes that unlike Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which poses a threat to NATO allies and American bases in Europe, Iran poses almost no direct threat to American national security.
An attack on Iran could unleash separatist forces that Washington cannot control. A large part of Iran’s economy is under the control of security institutions that are deeply loyal to the regime.
After America’s unconditional support for the Israeli regime’s crimes in Gaza, which is on the verge of “genocide” according to the UN, these institutions can easily mobilize forces to confront the West.
America’s regional allies will also not be immune to the consequences of such an attack.
