According to a report by Axios, titled “The Order that Wasn’t Given, the Behind-the-Scenes Story of Trump’s Retreat from Attacking Iran,” on Wednesday morning, dozens of senior military, political, and diplomatic officials in Washington and across the Middle East believed that American bombs would target Tehran within hours. Two US officials said that by that afternoon, it was clear that no order would be given, and the US had backed down.
Axios reports that over the past week, US President Trump had been inclined to attack Iran on several occasions, but due to the lack of military hardware in the region, warnings from allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, concerns among senior advisors about the consequences and effectiveness of attack options, and secret negotiations with Iran, he decided not to pull the trigger. This account of Trump’s decision-making over the past 10 days is based on interviews with four US officials, two Israeli officials, and two other sources familiar with the behind-the-scenes discussions.
The American media outlet repeated Trump’s claims that if Iran were to “violently kill peaceful protesters,” the US would intervene. It took several days for his administration to view the protests as a pivotal moment for Iran. With limited visibility into the events on the ground, US intelligence initially assessed that the protests lacked sufficient momentum to pose a significant threat to the Iranian political system. This changed on January 8, when protests intensified in Tehran and other cities. On Friday, January 9, the US Vice President held the first high-level meeting at the White House to discuss the details of a possible US military response.
The report adds that on Wednesday, there was a serious expectation within the government and in capitals across the Middle East, including Iran, that Trump would give the green light for an attack. US forces began evacuating Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and the Fifth Fleet’s base in Bahrain. Iran was convinced that a US attack was imminent and issued a notice closing its airspace.
Axios cites a US official saying, “This was not a charade or a trick.” Attention was focused on a crucial meeting that Trump planned to hold with his senior national security team later that afternoon, but hours passed without any word from the White House. Trump had decided to hold back.
A White House official said, “He wanted to continue monitoring the situation.” Another US official said, “It was really close. The military was in a position to act very quickly, but no order was given.”
Axios attributes the pause to a phone call from Israel, in which the Prime Minister urged caution from the US President. He told Trump that Israel was not prepared to defend itself against potential Iranian retaliation, especially since the US did not have sufficient assets in the region to help Israel intercept Iranian missiles and drones. Additionally, one of the Prime Minister’s advisors said Netanyahu felt that the current US plan was not strong enough and would not be effective.
According to a knowledgeable source, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also spoke with Trump, expressing deep concern about the consequences of such an action on regional stability. The American media outlet also claims that “another factor in Trump’s decision-making was the messages he was sending and receiving through a backchannel diplomatic channel between Steve Wittkoff and Abbas Araghchi.”
